Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Post Covid Era: Future of Economies and World Order An Interdisciplinary Approach , Mehmet Baykal,Jorge Haddock,Aziz Dayanır, Editör, İstanbul University Press, İstanbul, ss.21-45, 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the world in 2020, significantly impacted the food and agriculture
sectors. Production in the agricultural industry has been negatively affected, and food supply chains have been
disrupted. Examining the consequences of the pandemic on the food and agriculture industries has become a major
area of study for these reasons. Since prices are one of the most significant economic indicators, this book chapter
examined the impact of the pandemic on the food and agriculture sector using price data. The primary objective of
the book chapter is to assess the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in Turkey and to choose the most appropriate
model for future price forecasting. Turkey's consumer price index for food and soft drinks and producer price index
for food were used as data to evaluate the effect. The Box-Jenkins approach was utilized to forecast future periods
of food inflation. Following the methodology mentioned above, the data period began before the pandemic. While
the 2017m07-2021m08 period was determined as the estimation sample, the 2021m09-2021m11 period was
determined as the forecast sample. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model is Turkey's most accurate
predictor of food inflation. According to the results, it is anticipated that food prices in Turkey will continue to rise.